18 Nov 2020 12:22 PM +00:00 UTC

Watch: Magic: The Gathering Arena Crowdsourced Results of Being on The Play & Amount of Money Spent


There are several conspiracy theories and YouTube videos claiming that Magic: The Gathering Arena is rigged, and the surprisingly sad thing about it is that these opinions aren't all that unpopular, and that there's a large enough subset of player base that believe in them. Here's one of those videos:   


Now, a new 31-minute video from the YouTube channel Variance Kills features a study that uses examines crowdsourced results of being on the play, player spending, and their correlation


Variance Kills used crowdsourced data from 46 participants (2074 games), and estimates the probability of going on the play on the best-of-one ranked ladder. He also said that the distribution of player spending and the proportion of players who have spent more than $0 in MTG Arena are also estimated. 

Here are the results he found, according to the video by Variance Kills: 

"The probability of being on the play is estimated to be slightly lower than 50%, but the distribution of the data with respect to number of games played indicates that the coin-tossing algorithm is fair. No less than 56% of MTGA players are estimated to have spent at least some money in the game which is much higher than is typical for FTP games. The rate at which a player goes on the play was found to be weakly negatively correlated with spending but spending can only account for about 3% of the variability of going on the play and less than 0.5% after a single outlier was removed."

Variance Kills concludes that no evidence was found that players who spend more money have a higher chance of going on the play. 

What do you think about the data he collected in this study? 

This video doesn't prove anything but it's interesting to see the data in this video. 

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